EUR: Lagarde speaks in Geneva – ING
EUR/USD is drifting lower in quiet markets. It might be easy to link this to a lack of progress on Ukraine peace talks, but this seems more like a generalised dollar move. Perhaps there is some modest risk reduction going on as investors pare back some EM exposures. China had some soft July activity data earlier this week, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
EUR/USD should continue to trade in narrow ranges
"For today's session, we have some early remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde who speaks in Geneva. We doubt she's going to shed any light on what the ECB will do in September. For reference, there's just a 6% probability attached to a 25bp rate cut in September, and the market struggles to price in a full 25bp rate cut until next April."
"EUR/USD should continue to trade in narrow ranges and we do not see the need for it to break under 1.1590/1600 today."
"Additionally, one negative development for the euro overnight is ICE's decision not to include EU joint debt into its sovereign bond indexes. Our rates team will have more on this later – but it's not helpful for the global euro story."